Day 1 Chase Target Forecasting

Day 1 Chase targeting

Day 1 Chase targeting

Today’s agenda

Today’s agenda

Today’s agenda

General philosophy

A simple methodology for convective initiation

Low-level forcing mechanisms

An example of an anafront

An example of an anafront

An example of an anafront

Nearby vertical wind profile of an Anafront

Example of a Katafront

Example of a katafront

Example of a katafront

Example of a katafront

Example of a katafront

Example of a katafront

Example of a katafront

Low-level forcing mechanisms

The right kind of warm front

Example warm front

Example warm front

Example warm front

Example warm front

Example warm front

Example warm front

Example warm front

Low-level forcing mechanisms

Outflow boundary example

Outflows may be simply from localized cloudiness

Outflows may be simply from localized cloudiness

Outflows may be simply from localized cloudiness

Low-level forcing mechanisms

Dryline routines

Example dryline

Example dryline

Example dryline

Example dryline

Example dryline

Why no convection?

Why no convection?

Why no convection?

Why no convection?

Deep moisture convergence

Other low-level triggers

Horizontal convective rolls

Satellite perspective of horizontal convective rolls

Horizontal convective rolls

This puny roll/boundary produced the May 3rd monster

A simple methodology for convective initiation

Now to look for destabilization mechanisms

Can shortwaves aloft directly initiate convection?

mid-level ascending air

Example

Example of WV imagery

Example of a late arriving SW trough

Example of a late arriving SW trough

Synoptic Forcing Mechanisms

Synoptic forcing mechanisms

Differential thermal advection

Low-level warm advection

Low-level moisture advection

Upslope flow

Upslope flow

Upslope flow

Example upslope event

Example upslope event

Example upslope event

Example upslope event

Example upslope event

Example upslope event

Example upslope event

Example upslope event

Example upslope event

Destabilization from sustained convergence

Example

Example contd

Diurnal heating

Related to diurnal heating:  Is cirrus bad for storms?

Is cirrus bad for storms?

Is cirrus bad for storms?

Is cirrus bad for storms?

Example May 31, 1999

A simple methodology for convective initiation

Ingredients for supercells

Will I get supercells?

Will I get supercells?

Some sites have 6 km shear as a map

Storm motion

supercell motion

Or use this SPC plot

Supercell tornado threat

Storm Relative Helicity

SRH

SRH on a hodograph

SRH contd.

This storm is creating its own SRH

SRH issues

SRH contour on the web

Energy Helicity Index

Strong low-level buoyancy

Strong low-level buoyancy

Strong low-level buoyancy

Strong low-level buoyancy

Example of weak low-level buoyancy

Example of strong low-level buoyancy

Warm moist RFD

Estimating LCL heights

LCL height on the SPC product

Storm-relative midlevel winds

Inferring good SRH, low LCL, high near-ground instability

The ultimate tornado-producing boundary

The ultimate boundary

Great tornado hodographs

How to forecast HP, CL, LP

Storm-relative anvil layer winds

Interstorm seeding

A forecast methodology

Forecast methodology contd

Forecast methodology contd

Updating your target on the road

Some common targets

Misc target strategies

Misc target strategies

Misc target strategies

Misc target strategies

Misc target strategies

Acknowledgements

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